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Commodity wrap: gold hits 2-week high on rate cut hopes; oil, base metal prices up on US shutdown talks

All major commodities were in the green on Monday as gold hit two-week high on US rate cut hopes. 

Silver prices also surged by more than 3%, tracking gains in the yellow metal. 

Meanwhile, oil prices rose as well due to optimism that the US government shutdown will potentially end. 

Base metals were also higher on hopes of a potential end to the US government shutdown, which is likely to support demand for the commodities. 

Gold hits two-week high

Gold prices rose on Monday as weak economic data from the US reignited hopes about further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at their next meeting. 

Lower interest rates support gold prices as the yellow metal is an unyielding asset. 

Last week, data showed that the US economy shed jobs in October, with losses in both government and retail sectors. 

In early November, US consumer sentiment reached its lowest point in almost three-and-a-half years, according to a Friday survey. 

This decline was primarily attributed to concerns over the economic repercussions of the protracted government shutdown.

At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $4,100 per ounce, up 2.3% from the previous close. 

“But it also looks as if there’s a touch of resistance around $4,100 which will need to be taken out in a decisive fashion for bullish sentiment to continue to improve,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. 

But it also looks as if there’s a touch of resistance around $4,100 which will need to be taken out in a decisive fashion for bullish sentiment to continue to improve.

Among other precious metals, the silver price on COMEX was at $49.740 per ounce, up 3.3%. 

Oil gains

Following a breakthrough in the Senate in Washington, which boosted overall market sentiment, oil prices advanced on Monday, with front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) once more rising above $60 per barrel.

Morrison said:

The rebound provided some relief for the energy sector, which has faced weeks of pressure from concerns about oversupply and weakening demand.

Following recent declines, crude oil experienced modest gains due to improved risk appetite and some short covering. 

However, repeated selling pressure over the past two weeks is beginning to diminish the gains achieved during the sharp rebound in mid-October.

“It’s also worth noting how negative sentiment is towards crude currently. That could mean that prices have further to fall,” Morrison said. 

On Sunday, the US Senate advanced a measure designed to reopen the federal government and bring an end to the 40-day shutdown, which has impacted federal workers, postponed food aid, and caused significant air travel disruptions.

A surge in US flight disruptions on Sunday, including over 2,800 cancellations and 10,200 delays, the worst since the start of the government shutdown, raised concerns among analysts regarding the potential impact on US jet fuel demand, according to a Reuters report.

Base metals

Base metal prices are showing a modest increase this Monday morning. 

This upward movement follows positive developments regarding the conclusion of the US government shutdown and Chinese consumer inflation data that was marginally stronger than anticipated.

A late Sunday vote saw the Senate advance a bill to reopen the government, as moderate Democrats supported a compromise deal. 

Concurrently, China’s October Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-over-year, driven by holiday demand. 

These developments have boosted overall risk appetite, which in turn is supporting metal prices across all categories in early Asian trading.

Aluminium continues to lead the market, with prices in Shanghai rising by approximately 1% to nearly $2,880 per ton.

“Prices remain close to their recent three-year high as traders weigh supply constraints from China’s output caps and potential winter curbs,” Neil Welsh, head of metals at FCA regulated multi-asset brokerage Britannia Global Markets, said in an emailed commentary. 

Despite continued market tightness, fund investor sentiment remains positive, according to reports. 

However, some analysts caution that the current rally might lose momentum as increased scrap recycling boosts available supply.

The price of copper is rising, fueled by growing market speculation regarding restricted supply for US shipments.

As a result, traders are offering substantial premiums to secure available cargo.

Anticipation of a potential revisit of copper tariffs by Trump in 2026 or 2027 has created this situation, Welsh said. 

This expectation, combined with ongoing mine disruptions, has intensified global copper scarcity, pushed US premiums to record highs, and worsened existing supply constraints.

At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $10,806.60 per ton, up 1%, while the aluminium contract was 0.5% at $2,871.40 per ton. 

The post Commodity wrap: gold hits 2-week high on rate cut hopes; oil, base metal prices up on US shutdown talks appeared first on Invezz


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