By Apple stock slipped 0.2% to $269.11 in early trading Thursday, ahead of the iPhone maker’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report due after the market closes.
The results will test whether recent optimism over iPhone sales and Apple’s renewed stock rally is justified.
The stock has surged more than 30% since the beginning of August, lifting Apple’s market capitalisation from $3 trillion to $4 trillion and pushing shares to record highs.
On Wednesday, the stock advanced 1.3%, extending its winning streak.
Despite that strong run, Apple shares are up less than 9% so far in 2025, trailing the Nasdaq 100 Index’s 23% gain.
The recent underperformance, however, suggests room for further upside if results meet expectations.
iPhone 17 drives renewed optimism
Investor confidence has been buoyed by robust demand for the iPhone 17, with prices rising and early sales surpassing last year’s models.
Counterpoint Research found that the iPhone 17 series outsold the iPhone 16 by 14% in their respective first 10 days on sale across the US and China.
The latest model’s early momentum could be crucial for Apple, as the iPhone contributed more than half of the company’s total revenue in its previous fiscal year, which ended in September.
Analysts have lifted earnings estimates by 7% and revenue projections by 4.3% over the past three months, reflecting growing optimism about the new product cycle.
Wall Street expectations for Apple earnings
For the fiscal fourth quarter, analysts tracked by FactSet project earnings of $1.78 per share on $102.2 billion in revenue, both up 8% from the same quarter last year.
The period covers the typically slow late-summer months but includes the back-to-school season for Mac sales and a few days of initial iPhone 17 availability following its September 19 launch.
Wall Street expects iPhone sales to rise 8% and Mac revenue to grow 11%, marking potential rebounds for Apple’s core hardware divisions.
However, combined sales of iPads, wearables, and accessories are projected to fall 2% year-on-year, which could temper overall growth.
Investors will also be watching for signs of momentum heading into the company’s fiscal first quarter — its most important period — which encompasses the holiday shopping season.
Apple stock’s rally
Apple’s rally has pushed its valuation to roughly 34 times projected earnings, far above its 10-year average of around 22.
That makes it one of the priciest among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants, trailing only Tesla Inc. in valuation multiples.
While Apple’s premium reflects investor confidence in its brand and ecosystem, the company’s growth lags behind its peers.
Analysts expect Apple to report revenue growth of 6.2% for its just-ended fiscal year and to maintain that pace in fiscal 2026, according to Bloomberg data.
Big tech’s big earnings
Apple’s results cap a busy week for technology giants. Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., and Meta Platforms Inc. all reported on Wednesday, with mixed outcomes — Alphabet shares gained in post-market trading on stronger sales, while Meta and Microsoft disappointed.
Amazon.com Inc. will also report later Thursday.
Unlike its peers, Apple has taken a more conservative approach toward artificial intelligence spending and product development, which partly explains its slower growth trajectory.
Still, the company’s brand power, profitability, and expanding iPhone base remain central to investor expectations heading into its earnings announcement.
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