By Bitcoin held steady near recent levels on Tuesday as traders awaited clarity on the US interest rate outlook.
The broader crypto market saw a modest uptick, with total capitalization rising 0.79% to $4.12 trillion.
Sentiment remained broadly positive, with expectations leaning toward a dovish decision from the Federal Reserve.
However, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index showed a neutral reading, signaling caution beneath the surface as markets await a clearer directional move.
Select altcoins posted notable gains on the back of project-specific developments, while the rest of the market largely mirrored Bitcoin’s sideways action.
Why is Bitcoin price stuck?
Bitcoin price briefly climbed to an intraday high of $117,292 as traders positioned themselves ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates.
The rally, however, lost momentum as BTC slipped back toward the $116,000 mark in late-day trading, reflecting a broader mood of wait-and-watch across financial markets.
While sentiment has leaned bullish all week, the lack of follow-through on Tuesday suggests traders are reluctant to place aggressive bets before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision comments.
With the CME FedWatch tool pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut and Polymarket bettors closely aligned at 93%, much of the expected dovishness may already be priced into current levels.
What remains to be seen is whether Powell’s tone will open the door to further cuts this year.
Bets are building on a path toward three reductions by December, and anything short of that could spark volatility across both traditional and crypto markets.
The recent uptick in Bitcoin coincides with a weakening US dollar, which has dropped to a four-year low according to Reuters.
A softer dollar often drives capital into risk assets like Bitcoin, seen by some investors as a hedge against inflation and a store of value during monetary easing cycles.
Bitcoin’s 5% rise over the past week and the broader market’s push past the $4 trillion cap reflect growing investor confidence.
Still, the inability to hold above $117,000 highlights lingering uncertainty in the final hours before the Fed’s move.
If Powell hints at a cautious pace ahead, Bitcoin could retreat further, but a signal of more aggressive easing may reignite the rally.
Adding to the bullish undertone is Bitcoin’s historical performance this September.
Up 8% so far, the month is on track to become the strongest September for BTC since 2012, when it posted gains of nearly 20%.
Traditionally one of Bitcoin’s weakest periods, often marked by average losses of around 8%, this year’s performance has surprised many and is being closely watched as a sign of a maturing market cycle.
For now, all eyes remain on the Fed. Should the decision and Powell’s comments align with market hopes, Bitcoin may finally find the catalyst it needs to push decisively through resistance, and potentially close out September with one of its most historic performances to date.
Will Bitcoin price go up after Fed decision?
Although it’s not possible to gauge market direction solely based on easing expectations, such conditions are usually beneficial for all risk assets, and not just cryptocurrencies.
However, this year there have been multiple instances where Bitcoin has deviated from traditional market behavior, even on days marked by strong macroeconomic tailwinds.
For now, the 24-hour liquidation heatmap for Bitcoin can provide a clever picture of what the market is really bracing for ahead of the Fed decision.
Bitcoin 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass.
The data shows that BTC briefly surged into a zone of heavy short liquidations near the $117,000–$118,000 band, sweeping out some leveraged positions before sharply retreating.
This sharp correction means traders were quick to de-risk as the rally lost steam, hinting at lingering caution beneath the surface.
On the downside, the heatmap shows notable clusters of liquidation liquidity between $115,000 and $114,000, areas that have attracted increased activity as BTC slowly bled lower throughout the US session.
As prices pulled back toward those levels, signs of long liquidation began emerging, confirming that many overleveraged bullish positions were already being tested well before any policy announcement.
What’s becoming clear is that traders have positioned themselves tightly around the current range, creating a volatility pocket where either direction could result in a sharp flush of positions.
The lack of commitment from bulls at the highs, combined with fragile long setups below, sets the stage for a highly reactive market once Jerome Powell speaks.
Any surprise tone from the Fed could force a rapid unwind in either direction, triggering cascading liquidations that push BTC well beyond its current consolidation band.
Still, Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure remains intact, and with the broader market cap holding above $4 trillion, sentiment hasn’t flipped bearish.
The path BTC takes now will likely depend not just on the interest rate cut, which is widely priced in, but on how the Fed frames its path forward.
If Powell signals confidence in sustained easing or hints at multiple cuts before year-end, Bitcoin could rip through $118,000 and attempt a clean breakout toward the $120,000–$122,000 range.
On the other hand, if the Fed downplays expectations or stresses inflation risks, prices may revisit lower support bands, with liquidity building near $112,000.
Crypto analyst Ted expects an even steeper drop below $110,000 in case sentiment turns sour.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had lost $116,000 and was trading at $115,637, up 0.5% in the past 24 hours.
Top altcoin gainers of the day
The total market cap of all altcoins combined rose to an intraday high of $1.86 trillion before settling at $1.83 trillion, up 1.6% over the past 24 hours.
Traders remain bullish on the market as the Altcoin Season Index, a closely watched metric used to gauge the onset of an altcoin season, holds at 71, up from 62 around the same time last week.
However, it should be noted that a true altcoin season is only considered to have begun when the metric stands at 75 or above.
Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, experienced significant volatility over the day.
Bulls managed to push the price past the $4,500 threshold to as high as $4,550; however, they ultimately lost ground to bears amid investor caution surrounding today’s Federal Reserve rate meeting, with ETH settling just below $4,500 at press time, holding gains of 1% over the day.
Other leading altcoins by market share, such as XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA), recorded similar gains ranging between 1–3% during the period, while Tron (TRX) declined by 1%
Toshi (TOSHI) and MYX Finance (MYX) outpaced the high-cap cryptocurrencies with their double-digit gains of 62.7% and 57.6% respectively.
Wormhole (W) followed with relatively modest gains of 9.4% over the day.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Toshi: TOSHI price rallied to an 8-month high earlier today after it secured listings on Binance Futures and Upbit, a leading crypto exchange in South Korea.
Speculative trading on both these platforms, especially on Binance futures, after its listing, further helped keep the rally going, as evidenced by Toshi’s trading volume, which has surged in the past 24 hours.
The token’s gains were also supported by news that Base, the blockchain on which TOSHI is built, is planning to launch a native token for the network.
MYX Finance: MYX token rose nearly 1,400% to an all-time high of $19 earlier this week before falling to a weekly low of $10.26, as early investors likely booked profits following such massive gains.
The sell-off was further exacerbated after analysts warned community members and investors that the token’s skyrocketing gains were likely part of a pump-and-dump scheme orchestrated by whales and insiders.
Today’s rally was likely a recovery bounce from its weekly low after the MYX team denied the allegations.
Wormhole: Besides a surge in speculative trading, W’s gains can also be tied to the project’s upgraded tokenomics revealed today.
Key highlights from the overhaul include a Wormhole Reserve centered around the W token, a 4% base yield for investors who stake their W tokens, and a shift from annual cliff unlocks to bi-weekly unlocks starting in early October.
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