By Goldman Sachs analysts believe Nio Inc’s (NYSE: NIO) expanding model lineup and aggressive pricing tactics will translate to stronger sales through the end of this decade.
The investment firm hailed the electric vehicle company’s record-breaking deliveries and a robust pipeline in its latest research note – but maintained the EV stock at “neutral.”
This means NIO shares are unlikely to replicate their blockbuster 2025 performance next year.
At the time of writing, they’re up a whopping 130% versus their year-to-date low in early April.
Here’s what went well for Nio stock in 2025
Nio stock performance this year was underpinned by a surge of EV deliveries and strategic product launches.
October alone saw over 40,000 units delivered, a remarkable 92% year-on-year increase that broke all internal records.
Onvo L90 and the revamped ES8 played a major role in this momentum, offering compelling value and features that resonated with buyers.
Goldman Sachs analysts credited these models for improving NIO’s competitiveness and driving sustained growth in their research note.
With profitability goals in sight, including a projected non-GAAP profit in Q4 and EBITDA break-even by 2028, the NYSE-listed firm’s operational execution was undeniably strong this year.
Together, these tailwinds pushed Nio shares to new highs in 2025.
Here’s why 2026 won’t be the same for NIO shares
Despite operational wins and a battery-as-a-service (BaaS) model that is widely seen as a strategic moat, Goldman Sachs expects NIO stock to be the laggard in 2026.
On Monday, the investment firm raised its price target on the EV company to $7.0 – but even that suggests potential “downside” of as much as 5.0% from current levels.
According to Goldman Sachs’ analysts, investors should consider pulling out of Nio Inc at current levels as the market has already priced in the benefits of its refreshed lineup and delivery strength.
Upcoming models like the Onvo L80 and ES9 will sustain momentum – but are unlikely to surprise investors.
Sales projections for these vehicles – such as 80% of L90 volumes for the L80 – mirror existing benchmarks, reinforcing that future growth is evolutionary, not revolutionary, they added.
How to play Nio Inc heading into the next year
Beyond valuation, Nio Inc faces several challenges that could hinder stock appreciation in 2026.
Competitive pressure in China’s EV market remains intense, with rivals such as Li Auto and BYD pushing aggressive pricing and innovation.
NIO’s reliance on discounting to drive volume – while effective – could strain margins and delay profitability.
Plus, macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory shifts in Beijing’s auto sector may also introduce volatility.
And it’s not like Nio stock pays a dividend to appear any more attractive despite these risks either.
In short, Goldman Sachs isn’t disappointed – it’s simply suggesting there are better ways than NIO shares to play EV stocks heading into 2026.
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